The Mirror Crack'd (the blog quebecois)

The Mirror Crack'd

The Western Standard commissioned a poll gauging the mood in the western provinces:

The poll sampled 1,448 adults in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Thirty-six per cent of respondents agreed with the statement, �Western Canadians should begin to explore the idea of forming their own country.� Forty-three per cent of Albertans agreed with the statement, with the greatest level of support coming from the youngest age group (18 to 29 year olds).

The cover story here (.html) or here (.pdf file).

Methodology here (WordPad document).

For some perspective on this, separatist sentiment in Alberta had historically percolated around 10-20% -- the same level as in Quebec at the start of the "Quiet Revolution" in 1960. By 1976 that had risen to about 45%, at which point the first PQ government was elected.

I don't think that this poll is an outlier. An Edmonton paper (I think it was the Sun) published a poll a few years ago with similar results, though it was dismissed as analomous and too small in size. It'll be interesting to see the reaction this one draws.

If that Alberta number is accurate then this country could be perilously close to breaking up. Alberta has a long tradition of cataclysmic political change. Only four parties have ruled her since she became a province, and once thrown out of office, none of them have returned to power:

Liberal Party (1905-1921), the United Farmers of Alberta (1921-1935), the Social Credit Party (1935-1971), and the Progressive Conservative Party (1971 to present).

The Progressive Conservatives are looking a bit long in the tooth, I'd say.

Another comparison between Alberta and Quebec is I think instructive, and maybe decisive. As I wrote in 2002 in the first entry in this blog:

Western separatism is a different creature than Quebec's. The Quebec variety is top-down: Intellectuals, media and politicians. In the West, it's grassroots: Farmers, small business owners, and the guy who sleeps in his truck outside Ft. McMurray while waiting to get a spot in Syncrude's barracks.

The trigger is going to be Kyoto. If the Feds bungle it (as they've shown every sign of doing) then all bets are off.

Via Nealenews

Posted by gnotalex on August 3, 2005 9:46 PM | Permalink

Comments (5)

TB:

perilously close to breaking up???

Are you kidding me?

That methodology document you listed provided question and result; it did not provide any information about methodology, or statistical context, or anything else a real poll or real pollster would include. Ellis is not a careful pollster. There are a lot of problems with this poll, its methodology and the aim of the WS here, which we explore in a bit more detail over at Cerberus.

And read the poll and the bloody question more carefully. The question was: How much do you agree with the following statement: �Western Canadians should begin to explore the idea of forming their own country�?. Not, "Do you support Western independence?" Big big difference. The conclusion drawn in the article and the conservative blogosphere - that 35% of Westerners and 43% of Albertans want out - are a disingenuous interpretation of their own push poll.

~TB

Posted by TB | August 4, 2005 10:18 AM

Posted on August 4, 2005 10:18

aaa:

I live in Alberta. There is no way that close to half of the people I know are in favour of separation. In fact, the only peple I hear talking separtion are 3 or 4 people who are staunch Conservatives who are frustrated with the federal system. They felt screwed by Trudeau, Clark, Mulroney and Chretien and feel that Ralph Klein is the greatest leader ever. But when asked they realize that the �Republic of Alberta� would be costly (ie set up a foreign affairs office, customs, armed forces etc) and ineffectual within North America.

This poll is pure crap.

Posted by aaa | August 4, 2005 10:35 AM

Posted on August 4, 2005 10:35

A Hermit:

"For some perspective on this, separatist sentiment in Alberta had historically percolated around 10-20%"

From the methodology doc:

Male Female All
Strongly agree 25.5 15.1 20.2

There's your 20%.

And outside of Alberta only Saskatchewan comes close to that 20%.

Given the WS's ideological bent I'd like ot know more about how they weighted their sample too.

Short answer; nothing to see here folks...

Posted by A Hermit | August 4, 2005 1:18 PM